Friday, 31 August 2007

BCP and Mota Engil staring at the end of the week

The news of the day in Euronext Lisbon is the change of CEO at Banco Comercial Português (BCP). Filipe Pinha replaces Teixeira Pinto and the perspective of a closure in the internal war immediately led BCP share’s price to boom. At this moment they are gaining 4,24% (3,44€). These are the short-term flares (any chance was a good change), let’s wait and see who this news will be digested during the next week by the stock-olders.

Another big mover of the day is Mota Engil, climbing 4,42% to 5,66€ (16:05 GMT). On Mota Engil we had today the news of the 68 million dollars revenue from the recent IPO on Martifer, company co-held (50%-50%) by the management and by Mota-Engil.

PSI-20 Index is gaining 1,07% at 16:07 CMT with the vast majority of the companies in the green. During the session, “stubbornly” in the read with significant losses were Brisa and At he moment the first is still the biggest looser of the session (-0,63%) and Sonae (-0,51%) and by (-0,49%).

UPDATE: Euronext Lisbon PSI 20 index closed climbing 1,21%.

Have a nice weekend!

Thursday, 30 August 2007

PSI 20 index (Acções de Lisboa): Its up! Its down! Its every where!

I wrote this at 15:00 GMT (see below). As you can see almost everything changed in one and a half hour. A roller coaster day, again! Only the final question stands: where did all the logic go?

The morning broke sunny and bright. The previous afternoon brought good omens from across the ocean (USA) and everything seemed in it place for a normal, calm, positive session in Euronext Lisbon and in the rest of Europe. Sonae SGPC and Sonae Industria were capitalizing the unexpected good results presented the day before, BCP started nicely…. But then, again, hell broke loose and Euronext’s PSI 20 Index kept falling and falling. It was the front runner of what came to be an almost generalized loosing day in European markets (now at sync with what is happening in the US openings). At least this is what we can see at 15:00 GMT.
Europe seems incapable of rising as high as the US and capable to go lower than the US. Supposedly the crises began in the USA, supposedly the European economies are stronger than US’s, so, where did all the logic go?
PSI 20 Index (Acções em Lisboa) closed the session loosing 0,15% with BCP registering the biggest slide of the day 4,06% - the management crisis and the uncertainty of the internal war outcome is taking its heavy toll!
On the rise we had 12 of the 20 PSI titles. Sonae Industria (+3,20%), Galp Energia (+2,38%) and Sonae SGPS (+1,55%) registered the best performances of the day.

Wednesday, 29 August 2007

Euronext Lisbon: The ugly duckling of today’s European sessions

Well almost all Europe managed to close gaining today. All Europe? No! A small stock exchange nearby the Atlantic Ocean resisted until the end keeping its red colours.

Things were a lot worse at the begging and at mid session but, even so, the end was a bit gloomy.

Volume was, again, fairly low. BCP made a lot of transaction, like it did yesterday, but not enough to wake the bull. In fact it had the worst performance of the day loosing 2,54%.

PSI 20 index closed at -0,11% with 9 stocks loosing money. Besides BCP, Mota-Engil (-1,62%) and (-1,24%) were the biggest losers of the day. In the bright side, above 1%, we had Sonae SGPS (+2,65%) and Portucel (+1,08%).

August is almost finished. Will next week be the one for the turning point in Euronext Lisbon? We will have ECB monthly reunion and will also have the end of holydays for most people. I guess there are a lot of Portuguese PSI-20 stocks at interesting prices. But is anyone paying attention?

Tuesday, 28 August 2007

Euronext Lisbon: one step forward, two steps backwards

Euronext’s PSI 20 index closed loosing 1,17%.

The day ended, again with a very low level of transaction, but this time with some more external influence determining the worse performance since the mini-crash – if I correctly recall. Only two stocks in the green, BPI and Soares da Costa, the rest registered losses, especially Mota-Engil (-4,14%), Altri, Impresa and Semapa, all plunging more than 3%.

By the way the ball is pointed it doesn’t look straight in the fair way!!

The news on the possible stall in the ECB rise of interest rates seamed quite insufficient to boost a little bit the European markets (even thou Euribor is actually falling today). Not even the announcement by BNP Paribas of the end of the suspension of its investment funds (on the 30th of August) did the trick.

The theoretical lower risk of the European Banks is hardly seen in the stock exchange evolution when compared with the US stock markets. All seem very similar.

Monday, 27 August 2007

Euronext Lisbon keeps recovering slowly

In a day where the European markets close with mixed evolutions, Euronext Lisbon measured by it’s PSI 20 index closed gaining 0,26%.

A final rush to BCP shares explains great part of this figure (the shares went up by 1,68%). BCP was by far the most negotiated stock of the day although it was suspended one hour before closure due to the on-going all important shares holders general assembly.

As a curiosity Cofina ended precisely at the level it had when the last post was edited. It was the second biggest upward mover and finished the day gaining 1,14%.

In the bottom positions of the day with very low volume appears Soares da Costa, (-0,81%), Cimpor (-0,73%) and Impresa (-0,71%).

At noon PSI 20 index is barely positive: 0,15% (27 August 2007)

At noon PSI 20 index is barely positive: 0,15%. It had a spike early on the session but since then it has steadily lost gas. Again, Cofina seams to want to leave PSI 20 leaving a good impression: it is climbing more 1,14% and leads the gains followed closely by Altri.

The day is again a typical summer day with low volume of transactions and without (for the time being) significant volatility. PT Multimedia leads the losses falling 0,91%.

In the news, besides the BCP’s general Assembly, I spotted and underline a curiosity on the Portuguese market: Jornal de Negócios looked with some attention to the Portuguese PSI Technology, an index that follows about 4 companies that survived the tech bubble but that are still striving to recover properly.

According to the analysis they are in counter-cycle with their parts in other countries. Some keep accumulating losses (Compta) others are trying to invest abroad. Will this be the secret to success? Let’s try to accompany once in a while these enterprises that don’t have a single representative in PSI 20. Today, at this moment, only Reditus is in the gains (+0,47%). The volume for all of them is appalling.

Sunday, 26 August 2007

BCP: What’s next for the biggest Portuguese private bank?

Last Friday ended in a “good mood” in the United States Stock Markets with gains above 1%. PSI 20 index that closed some hours before didn’t performed so well.

The final figure was a gain of 0,26%. For this result Portugal Telecom (+1,72%), Galp Energia (+1,09%) and also Cofina (with a lower weight in the index and about the leave it but with an higher variation: +1,75% ) were the main contributors. In the lows the highlight goes to Banco Comercial Português (-1,10%) and to PT Multimédia (-1,06%).

Remember that for tomorrow is scheduled the (second) all decisive (eventually!) General Assembly of BCP Stock holders. An administration war is on the way for several months with the former CEO Jardim Gonçalves leading one of the parties and with present CEO, Teixeira Pinto, leading the other. The Bank is all over the news, the stocks have experienced huge volatility and the last financial results seem to bare the weight of the enduring conflict.

What’s next for the biggest Portuguese private bank?

Friday, 24 August 2007

Euronext’s PSI 20 index is dealing in the borderline at mid session: 0,03%

At 11:04 GMT only six of the 20 companies quoted in PSI 20 index were registering (small) gains. No particular tendency is encountered in any particular sector; there are some ups and a lot of downs everywhere. The same seams to be happening abroad.

Transaction volume is very “summerly” today. Is this low level of euros in the stock exchange just explained by the seasonality? Which part is explained by possible investor that fled the market? Only time will tell.

Thursday, 23 August 2007

PSI 20 index – Brisa and PT Multimedia two opposite stories on the 23rd of August, 2007

PSI 20 Index ended up loosing steam with a rise of 0,31%, quite below the more than 1% that registered early on the day.

Probably the confusing figures that arrived from NYSE near the end of the European markets paid a role on the outcome.

Nevertheless the day ended with a big surprise that is still to be explained: PT Multimedia that hovered about a null variation during almost all day ended climbing 2,52% which was the highest rise of the day, surpassing for instance the “inevitable” Altri SGPS (2,25%). Entertainment (Impresa, + 2,20%), Construction (Mota-Engil, + 2,10%) and Cement (Semapa +2,10%) completed the “more than 2% rise” team of the day.

On the other side of summer the highlight goes to Brisa (Construction, Highways) that slipped 1,15%, in the day that come the news that it’s administration is looking for a local partner to cooperate in the newly conquered contract for The Northwest Parkway Public Highway Authority (USA).

ECB signals that it will rise interest rates in September as anticipated

Does ECB think that we are facing a financial problem that will not spill over to real economy thus existing no need to stop doing business as usual, namely defining the monetary policy solely according to the inflationary tension that “are” in the horizon?

Does ECB just want to signal that the worst is a bygone having no need to change what was already scheduled before the mini-crash and pushing the investors again towards the market?

Or is ECB just testing the market by underlining that it will probably maintain the pre-announced rise in it’s reference interest rate?

One thing seems sure: the market response was serene all over the world until this moment. PSI 20 is climbing 0,85% with Altri, SGPS (again!) in the limelight (+3,69%), accompanied closely by SEMAPA-S.Inv. Gestao, SGPS (2,19%) and by Mota-Engil, SGPS (+2,10%) – 11:50 GMT.

Wednesday, 22 August 2007

At last a "normal" session in Lisbon and abroad: thumbs up!

Well, today we had a “normal” session with no sudden picks and troughs. The session ended with a strong rise of 1,31% in the PSI 20.
Altri – one of the most speculative titles of the year – was for the second session in a row the big upward mover: +4,53% to 6,22€. Here is a resume of the data for the company that ended above de +2% threshold:

% Price (€)
Altri, SGPS, SA 4,53 6,22
SEMAPA-S.Inv.Gestao,SGPS 3,67 11,85
Jeronimo Martins-SGPS 2,92 4,22
Cimpor-C.Port.SGPS-Nom. 2,57 6,78
Cofina-SGPS 2,39 1,71
Impresa, SGPS - Nom. 2,25 2,72
Sonae SGPS 2,18 1,87
S.C.Soares Costa 2,10 2,42
Sonae Industria SGPS,SA 2,00 9,18


The almost obsolete job of the on-line market analyst

In the last weeks to state the mood of the stock exchange in any given moment is the same as giving an accurate picture of a roller-coaster. The aphorism: Historic gains are no guarantee of future profits are now truth at a minute-by-minute level.
Will this be another day where the begining of the market session is completely different from the behaviour at mid session and again totally away from the end session figures?
Let’s wait and see. For the time being the Portuguese Stock Exchange (Euronext Lisbon) is clearly in the green with a daily variation of +1,2% (11:00 GMT).
With the exception of PT Multimedia (virtually stable), all PSI-20 stocks are gaining with Mota-Engil, Sonae Industria and Cimpor climbing more than 2%.

Tuesday, 21 August 2007

PSI 20: going down 0,24% (21 August 2007)

Today PSI 20 went on another roller-coaster ride. In ended losing 0,24% after experiencing both: red and green during the session.
A perfect example was that went from gains of more than 3% ending at 4,08€ loosing 0,48%.
Altri on the other side kept rising during all the session(+1,88% at 5,95€) and it was in fact the highest rise of today.
The worst performer today was Banco Espírito Santo that ended at 29,08€ representing - 2,02% than yesterday.
At this moment (18:38 GMT) and after hovering the zero line, the US indexes are clearly in the green.

PSI 20: Looking down again at mid morning (21 August 2007)

European stock exchanges are not replicating the upward movement of USA and Asia’s last sessions. Particularly the PSI 20 (sailing at half speed with a low volume of investment) is losing -0,26€ (10:45 GMT).
Almost all stocks are stable or in the red. The exceptions are gaining 1,95% (4,18€) and Altri gaining 1,03% (5,90€).

Monday, 20 August 2007

Closure: PSI 20 climbed 1,42% (20 August 2007)

All stocks ended on the green except Brisa (-0,52%). Here is a summary of the biggest movers of the day limited to the ones that climbed more than 3%:

% Price (€)
Portucel 2,81 5,63
Altri 5,84 5,41
Galp 10,17 5,38
Soares da Costa 2,40 4,34

Again, a special note to REN that gained 7.22% (6.72€). As stated before, this implies that it has recovered entirely from the recent devaluation, a goal that most of the titles are still far from achieving.

REN will enter PSI 20 on the 3rd of September.

The end of Berardo's "OPA" for Benfica

It's official. Less than 1% of Benfica's free float accepted the offer by Joe Berardo to takeover of at least 30% of the stocks for 3,5€ each.
No surprise here since the market price for Benfica's stock has been quite below the takeover target for several weeks.
As a "compensation" Joe Berardo states that he will consider to reinforce his participation in Benfica's capital, probably by buying stoke in the "live" market.

Today it's been a(nother) Benfica's day in the news. Fernando Santos the soccer team main coach was kicked off and rumour (well, almost certainty) says that Jose Antonio Camacho is returning. In the next days Benfica will play the very important second hand of the play-off to enter Champions League. It has a small lead of 2:1 and it will play abroad facing FC Copenhagen. A few millions of euros of prize money are at stake. Not the most orthodox timing to change coach, right?
Benfica's stock are nevertheless climbing 0.93% to 3,25€ (16:38 GMT).

PSI 20 Composition

The best place to find updated information on PSI-20 composition and it's rules is naturally the Euronext site. However it is common to find in the internet other not so accurate pages that rank considerably higher in the search engines and that can mislead the user.
Wikipedia, for instance, hardly is the best place to find updated information on the Portuguese stock exchange, specially now with the increased volatility that the new rules for the PSI 20 composition introduced.
The side bar will, in the near future, include a section with some utilities for the users with the best links to find relevant information.

PSI 20 Monday, August 20, 10h45m update

For the second day in a row the index is recovering strongly from last week’s downfall. At 10h45 is was gaining 1,54%.

All the stocks were on the green, being the biggest movers with increases above 2%:

% Price

Soares da Costa 6.52% 2.45 €

Altri 5.41% 5.84 €

Portucel 4.51% 2.78 € 4.01% 4.15 €

Galp 2.90% 9.93 €

Sonae SGPS 2.74% 1.87 €

BCP 2.62% 3.52 €

A special note to REN that is gaining 6.64% (6.69€). This implies that it has recovered entirely from the recent devaluation, a goal that most of the titles are still far from achieving.

Update (12h14m): According to Jornal de Negócios today's boost in REN's price is partly explained by the confirmation that the company will enter PSI20. This could potentially increasing its international exposition.

Sunday, 19 August 2007

3rd of September: REN in, Cofina out of PSI-20

Last Friday, Euronext Lisbon informed the market that REN will replace Cofina in PSI-20 index. This is a direct consequence of the new revision rules for PSI-20 constitution and derives of the high free float and the high valorisation of REN stocks.

REN is responsible to manage the energy infrastructure of the country, it is still majority held by the state and will, between the end of this year and the beginning of the next, pass trough a second IPO. The first operation concluded in the 9th of July was a success both in terms of revenue for the seller (it was sold out at the high end of the defined price interval) and also for the buyers that, even after the mini-crash of the last days, have a very interesting accumulated return.

Moreover, Euronext Lisbon released the names of top 3 companies in the waiting list to enter PSI-20: Teixeira Duarte, Banif and Martifer.

Saturday, 18 August 2007

Is the mini-crash over?

Last week made it official: we have experienced a mini-crash in global terms in all stock exchange markets. The word “injection” appeared in the news characterizing the intervention in the markets by the main international central banks and when this occurs bad things have happened, are happening and will probably continue to happen for a while. Nevertheless there is no certainty on the future.

Next week is the one to determine next months trends some repeat. Why? Because now is sure that bad things have happened and that bad things are happening. So, will they keep on coming?

Besides the capital injections the U.S. Federal Reserve did some fine tunning in the lending tax rates to the banks. The news of this measure is said to justify the last Fridays clear recovery. The question now is to know if the reaction next week is to maintain that the risk prize (in the sub-prime) is paid or, contrarily, it will be to realize that oops! If the feed is meddling with the tax rate then things (that still are unclear in dimension) must be worst than we thought of.

All this can be found in the text books, all this is fine field for the hardened gamblers. Some stocks may be very, very cheap at Fridays prices… or, in other hand, they may not be.

Care for a crystal ball on animal spirits?

The Euronext Lisbon, the enterprises and some posts in English

Hi! This will probably be a bilingual weblog on the news of the Portuguese stock exchange. I will try to bluid a small database of the portuguese enterprises comprised in the PSI-20 index and also in the PSI general index. I will do so by highlighting and commenting information on Portuguese economy and finance.

With the possible regularity I will follow some of the PSI 20 star companies and also some wannabes.

I’m an economist and enjoy looking up for almost everything that can be put in figures.

In the days that I’ll have spare time I’ll release small highlights of the moment using live information from the stock exchange. I will most certainly comment on the news and on the omissions of the Portuguese specialized press on Economy and Finance.

Other excuse to keep this blog is to force myself to write in English. So, in advance, sorry for the mistakes. But this will also be a billingual weblog: English and Portuguese.

I’m not an expert and I don’t intend to advise anyone. The objective is to use this blog to be up to date with the Portuguese stock exchange. If you find it interesting please don’t hesitate to look around and comment.

Let’s roll!