Wednesday, 31 October 2007

BCP and BPI in a losing mood

Banco Comercial Português (-3,36%) and BPI (-2,62%) were to stocks that lost the most today in PSI 20 index. The fusion is still quite uncertain as well as its terms.
PSI 20 gained 0,14% mainly due to the strong behaviour of the other blue ships like EDP (+1,13%) and PT (+1,09%).
Impresa had the best performance climbing 2,80%.

Tuesday, 30 October 2007

Barely positive index

PSI 20 spent all day losing gas but managed to end the session barely positive:+0,03%.
As expected quotes rose in response to the unexpected good financial results. It closed the day gaining 1,83%. Only Altri (+2,33%) and PT-after-PT Multimedia Spin off (+3,97%) behaved better today.
In the down side we had precisely PT Multimedia (-6,00%) and Impresa (-2,34%) for which the market is anticipating not so great results for the year.
Looking to BCP (0,0%) and BPI (-1,10%) closing quotes all seems calm but it should be noted that many stocks changed hands today. The negotiation is going on (outside the TV sets for now).

MIllenium BPI is already a TV show

Dear reader,
Is it normal in you country, while a bank is courting another (very politely) to see the CEO of the eligible groom go to a TV talk show and talk with some of the stock holders of the bride? I’m speaking of a national broadcast channel.
For me is quite bizarre! But Banco Comercial Portugues has been one of the most bizarre quotes in the world in the last months so maybe this is the beginning of a public relations service… by the groom.
Tomorrow BCP administration will present a counter proposal for the pretended fusion.
In the meanwhile BPI stokes leaded to losses today within PSI 20: - 2,76%. BCP had a slight gain: (+0.29).
PSI 20 index rose 0,69% in line with the European counterparts indexes. The most impressive climb of the day was performed by Cimpor (+3.75%), closely followed by Mota-Engil (+3.21) and by Brisa (+2.74%).
After the closing bell some companies presented quarterly results. The highlight goes to the reported unexpected profits. Tomorrow (today actually) at least in some part of the session it is expected to see quotes rising.

Friday, 26 October 2007

BCP up 7,21%

In a positive day in the stock exchanges world wide, Euronext Lisbon main index, PSI 20, climbed a bit more due to the business of the year that is (again) in perspective: the fusion between BPI and BCP. Both together represent the third biggest bank in terms os stock market capitalization in the Iberian Peninsula.
BPI stocks had a modest behaviour today, and ended in a slight fall of 0,15%. BCP's quote, on the other side rocketed more than 7% boosting the index.
Another bank that has been brought to the ring is BES, a bank that is threatened by this fusion, becoming immediately too little to keep on playing in the big league, I guess.
Several explanations have been discusses today for the BPI invitation and it's timing. It seams quite reliable the information that signals that several non-portuguese banks were on the verge to try to buy BCP. BPI played ahead and will try to keep the lead. More news, more buzz, more readers, more business, that's the immediate consequence of this proposed deal.
A final not to Semapa’s trading day: it was the biggest loser of the session: 2,44%.

Thursday, 25 October 2007

BPI asked Millenium BCP hand in marriage

PSI 20 ended rising 0,70% a little below the European average for the main stock indexes. made the top for the third day in a row climbing 3,49% - it is still far, far away from the level prior to sub-prime crisis. BCP followed by rising 2,24% and Brisa came in third valorising 2,15%. In the down side and justifying a not so neat global behaviour we had Mota-Engil falling 2,10% and, particularly, PT slipping 0,67%.

Well and that’s that for the day… but is it really?
NO! The rumour came to be true: BPI asked politely the hand of BCP (Millenium BCP). The marriage is still far away and the answer is not certain but we will have quite to talk about in the next weeks and months. For starters both banks have stocks from each other that must be sold if the deal is to be completed.
The Millenium BPI would have 30% share in the Portuguese market and would be one of the biggest banks in the Iberian Peninsula.
After the hostile attempt by Millenium BCP to take over BPI and after the top management rearrangement within BCP (where BPI had a role) this was a somewhat predictable outcome.

Wednesday, 24 October 2007 escapes again!

With PSI 20 index falling 0,86% and with the global stock exchanges in a depressive movement, climbed again very significantly: 2,47%. It was the biggest rise of PSI 20 and ended the day quoting 3,72€. Even so, it continues to be one of the cheapest stocks in Euronext Lisboa according to some evaluations (see last post).
In the downside of today's story we have Soares da Costa with big volatility in the last sessions: today it lost 4,14%. It was followed by Sonae Industria, -3,11%, and by Mota Engil, -3,06%.
During the day, before the US openings things were far better but the real estate sales and the never ending sub-prime crisis take another toll to the stock markets.

Tuesday, 23 October 2007

Is an ugly duckling? was one of the big losers during the last sessions and it is still one of the worse performers of the year within PSI 20 index.
Today, again, one investment house elected has a top pick giving it a price target of 5,15€. As a consequence it ended today’s session climbing 3,12%, closing at 3,12%. It was the biggest rise of the day.
If the predicted quote is right a huge valorisation maybe in the way. The truth is that the market is not considering so much since its take over on PT succumbed early this year.
Sporadically, news of an acquisition of PT Multimedia (that is to be spin off from PT as a consequence of the attempted take over) put some spikes in the quote evolution over last weeks but it is to be considered has a long run hypothesis, long enough to let the price slide again and again.
PSI 20 closed fairly bright: up 1,02%.
Sonae SGPS was the second leading title gaining 2,57%. PT and EDP with gains above 1% were the main responsibles for the good performance, in tune with the rest of the world.

Disclaimer: I have a few stocks of

Monday, 22 October 2007

Recession? The bad word reappears.

Eurostoxx 50, 100 and 150 performed worse than PSI 20 index, today. PSI 20 closed losing 0,97% with 8 quotes falling more than 2% and with only EDP (+0,23%) and Jerónimo Martins (+0,40%) gaining value in the session.
In the meantime from the US the mixed signals didn't help to avoid the shock wave of last Fridays mood.
Will the US economy enter in a recession? Euro valorization continues...

Sunday, 21 October 2007

Friday equals minus 0,29%

Soares da Costa climbed 10,13% after presenting its investment plan for the next years. Strange?

PSI 20 slided 0,29% last Friday, a not so bad figure in a day that ended with NY stock exchanges falling more than 2%. Even in Europe PSI 20 index performed a little bit in the upper side in relative terms. Twelve out of 20 titles lost value in the last session. Cimpor got the lead losing 2,09%.

Thursday, 18 October 2007

Is there a fusion on the way?

PSI 20 index recovered 0,26% today mainly due to the rumours of a concentration between the first and forth Portuguese private banks, BCP and BPI. The most recent scandals involving BCP administration that lead the Portuguese Central Bank and the Market Police to ask for urgent additional information is supporting the idea that a cycle has reached the end and that late scenery of concentration lead by BCP could now be ironically done by BPI and it's main stockholder taking control of BCP.
BPI ended the day gaining 2,69%, closely followed by BCP: + 1,90%. EDP (+0,69%) and PT (+0,57%) also contributed for the positive day in an not so good external context.
In fact Euronext closing figures were not spectacular probably because the significant loss by GALP all mighty: -1,38%; GALP leaded the losses in PSI 20 index.

Euronext Lisbon will be in the spotlight until the BCP issue is not solved, that’s a fact.

Wednesday, 17 October 2007

PSI 20 recovered 0,86%

Eighteen out of 20 companies recovered value today and the remaining stabilized.
Altri gained the most+4,18%. All world was in the green today. Oil prices started to relax a bit after the news on the US reserves (not so low as expected)...

Tuesday, 16 October 2007

Second day with significant losses in Euronext Lisbon

PSI 20 fell 0,7% in the second negative session in a row. Only Galp (due to the increase in oil prices) added value to its quote: +0,7%. PT and BPI didn’t budge if we compare the last two closing quotes.
Jerónimo Martins leaded the losing gang by falling 2,94%.
Among the top companies an highlight for BCP that kept on losing money in a day where the turmoil continues (see last entry): -1,26%.

Monday, 15 October 2007

The day BCP got bad news, again

Portugal Telecom (+0,48), Sonae Indústria (+0,45) and Espirito Santo (+0,38). These are the three exceptions in a day that was running pretty well until mid session. The day ended with PSI 20 losing 0,85% (not one of the worst results of the day), and with 10 out of 20 falling more than 1%. The biggest falls: Portucel -3,26% and Jerónimo Martins -3,25%.
But the buzz of the day was with BCP (-1,86%), a new scandal is on the verge with accusations of favouritism by the fonder (Jardim Gonçalves) towards it’s sun pending – supposedly a 11 million euros debt was pardoned; and also an additional accusation of favouritism towards one of the stockholders by reviewing the interest rate on a major loan. The Portuguese Central Bank and the Market Police are demanding urgent enlightenment. Tomorrow the bank board is due to do a press release.

Sunday, 14 October 2007

In one hand up, in another hand down

A heavy rise from PT (3,60%) counterbalanced the significant losses by EDP (-1,16%) and BCP (-0,92%). PSI 20 ended the day barely positive, 0,01%. Quite below IBEX 35 (+1,07%), but fairly above CAC 40 (-0,32%). The majority of the titles (14) lost value, five of them surpassing 1%. The biggest fall of the day was Jeronimo Martins: - 3,33%.

Friday, 12 October 2007

EDP's new convertible bonds equal 5% of the capital held by the State

Yesterday was one of the best performances in weeks for Lisbon Stock Exchange. PSI20 index rose 1,04% with two of the big players climbing significantly: EDP, + 2,14% and PT, 1,32%. The top of the chart was occupied by Sonae, Jerónimo Martins and Soares da Costa, rising 3,05%, 3,04% and 3,03% respectively.
Today the session began with a bad mood that at this moment is slightly mitigated. At 11h47 GMT, PSI 20 is falling 0,27%.
In today’s agenda is the public presentation of the Portuguese 2008 governmental budget, which will clarify the next year schedule for the privatisations.
From yesterday comes also the news of an additional block of EDP capital to be privatized via convertible bonds; it’s a not so disruptive way to “sell” without confusing the stock market in the short term and potentially change, again, the stock holder structure with a qualified position (above 2%).

Wednesday, 10 October 2007

Nothing new in the Euronext front

Yesterday I watched to a very nice doc on Remarque's novel "All quiet on the western front". Surely a mandatory reading on this days where Sun Tzu’s Art of War ins still in some of the book top. Both are on my which list for the next months.
But, what’s with this guy talking about books?
Well, PSI 20 Index spent the day hovering about zero and ended slightly negative (0,06%)
Impresa kept the momento of the last day climbing an additional 3,93% and Mota Engil also renew the habit of making big pushes, today climbing 5,17%. PT was one of the spoil pleasures of the day bringing Euronext main index to the red by falling 0,8%. The biggest fall was the one of PT Multimedia, -2,16%, (the spin off from PT is approaching) and it was followed by Ren (-1,67%) and by Brisa (-1,16%). But don’t be fooled by the closing quote comparison, during the day, all sort of turbulence happened.
As I was saying, it’s time for a reliable and absorbing novel.

REN up by 5,27%

Has I’ve stated before this was the day were REN had an increased free-float available due to the end of the moratoria for the stocks acquired by employees and small investors during the initial dispersion that lead to the company entry in the Stock Exchange.

Some analysts, namely the ones quoted in this article in Jornal de Negócios were expecting a pressure for a low land day for REN’s quote, but instead it rocketed more than 5%, ending the session in the maximum value of the day. The small investors refused to sell? Not quite, the day passed with this small investors flocking to the market materializing the until yesterday virtual gains of about a 30% valorisation in three months. So… today someone bought everything that moved branded “Ren”.

PSI 20 ended up by 0,34% with seven of the 20 quotes climbing. Eleven quotes represented slight losses comparing to Tuesday. Besides REN, Impresa was also na hightlight for the second session in a row, valorizing about 4% today.

Monday, 8 October 2007

Close to zero in a day where that was not so bad -PSI 20

In a day of generalized moderate losses, PSI 20 hovered about zero, ending slightly below: -0,08%.
Brisa (-1,15%), (-1,02%) and REN (-0,87%) were the leading companies in the downturn side.
Tomorrow REN will have an increased free-float available due to the end of the moratoria for the stocks acquired by employees and small investors during the initial dispersion that lead to the company entry in the Stock Exchange.
On the green the stars of the day were Mota Engil (2,27%), Impresa (1,66%) and Semapa (1,62%).

Sunday, 7 October 2007

Comissão de Mercado de Valores Imobiliários accepts NYSE = Euronext Lisbon

The Portuguese weblog Direito & Economia summarizes one of last week’s big news for the Portuguese stock exchange, at least in a symbolic level. To be more precise the Portuguese market police (CMVM) approved that any company currently quoted in New York stock markets needs only to simply apply to enter Euronext Lisbon. With this rule the need to do a public offer no longer stands and the two markets become virtually boundless. The reasoning behind this decision is that the demands from the NYSE are quite sufficient according the CMVM standards.
Let's see if any practical implication arrives from this change in the next moths or years.

Best week in 6 years: + 5,27%

According to Diário Económico the first week of October was the best week in six years for the Portuguese Stock Exchange. After registering one of the biggest falls due to the sub-prime crisis (that in fact hardly involved the Portuguese Finacial Institutions) Euronext Lisbon roared last week with the best performance worldwide.
Individually it was the most penalized company of 2007 that climbed the most: rising 14% - a rise that is still far away what would be needed to completely compensate this years overall loss. Significant is the fact that this behaviour from is connected with rumours of a take over on PT Multimedia probably during the next year. More money in the market, fusions and mergers again in the daily talks; Business as usual after the storm?

With this report I'm back in business after a short vacation.